When closely
analyzing the current developments and actors in the contemporary international
system, we can see the emergence of the “New World Order”. The most significant characteristic of this
new world order is the possible shift from the US led uni-polar world to a
multi-polar world. The reasons, which can be justified this transformation is
the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, and the increasing
influence of non-state actors and their power. Accordingly, the concept of
multi-polarity has gained prominence all over again around the world.
“A global
multipolar system is emerging with the rise of China, India and others, The relative power of
nonstate actors—businesses, tribes, religious organizations,
and even criminal networks—also will increase.”[1]
The Global
Trends 2025: A Transformed World by National Intelligence council released
recently.
When such statements and predictions
are governed with the current trends, we cannot resist accepting the prevailing
change in the international system towards a new world order. Does this mean
that the sole super power believed as United States is loosen? US which
overcame the military and economic power of Russia, become the sole superpower
in the world after the cold war. Since then the American hegemony remained
unchallenged in the world with their GDP, military and market forces for many
years. However, China and Russia since then were prepared to practice their own
games to face this hegemony while cooperating with certain issues and competing
with others.
With the current and fast increase
of Chinese economic and military capacity, it would play a major role towards
the journey to the multi-polarity. Dilip
Hiro at an interview on recent economic recession, said that whenever there’s a
recession and it was the USA who brought the world out of the recession, but
this time, it was China who did it.
On the other hand India is also
facing relatively a rapid economic growth as another contributor for this
common agenda. Addressing the fourth BRICs summit, the Indian Prime Minister
said that “we support a multipolar, equitable, democratic and just world order”[2]
Major
players such as China, India, and Russia are not following the Western liberal
model for self-development but giving a important roles to the State, just as
the other rising powers like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore also used the
same method called “state capitalism” for their economic development.
One of the prominent incidents which
we can pick for this is when Russia was backed by China on the issue of Iraq’s
weapons of mass destructions in 1998 blocking US to be the sole decision maker
at the UN Security Council.
The 1997 “Joint
Russian-Chinese declarations about a Multipolar world and the formation of new
world order” was one of the first among the series of statements stressing the
need of multi-polar world to overcome the US hegemony.
The call for
multipolarity was calmed subsequent to the terrorist attack hit the US on
September 11, 2001 gaining multilateral backing for US war in Afghanistan.
However, in 2002, Russia went back to its previous position to emphasize on the
multipolar world order, when the president Putin claimed that “Russia and China
have always stood for the establishment of a multi-polar world and the
strengthening of the role of the UN” [3]
Along with the
rise of power among the states, the relative power of non-state actors
including business, religious organizations and specially the criminal network
is currently increasing.
[1]
Global
Trends 2025: A Transformed World, National Intelligence Council, 2012
[2]
BRIC countries call for greater clout, Financial Times, April 16, 2010
[3]
ASIAN PERSPECTIVE, Vol. 33, No. 1, 20, Russia, China and Multipolar World
Order, Susan Turner, pg 166
Emerging
powers
·
BRICs
Let’s take the
current trends in to account. One of the trends we can see as a factor which
depicts the emergence of multipolar world is rising and organizing of new
powers; one of the major examples which we can cite is the BRICs.
BRIC
States (Brazil, Russia, India and China) as emerging powers in the world are
also leaders to
proceed their talks on a common agenda for what they see as a multipolar world
– far away from a Western umbrella.
They
consider an alterative to the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency. They
also emphasize on their roles in the world economy.
BRIC
nations represent about 40 percent of the world's population and the 20 percent
of global economic output.
In 2012 BRICS Partnership for Global Stability,
Security and Prosperity, New Delhi Declaration, the leaders emphasized that “BRICS … for the promotion of
peace, security and development in a multi-polar, inter-dependent and
increasingly complex, globalizing world. Coming, as we do, from Asia, Africa,
Europe and Latin America, the transcontinental dimension of our interaction
adds to its value and significance.” [1]
China is without a doubt the most powerfully emerging state today. China is
not only growing economically, its military clout is also on the top. In 2008
China evolved into the world’s second highest military spender. It is the major
country emerging both as a military and economic rival of the US.
[1]
BRICS Partnership for Global stability, security and prosperity, New Delhi declaration,
The Presidency Republic of South Africa, 30 March 2012
India
as mentioned earlier also, India is a major player for
a multipolar international system, with its growing international confidence,
economic growth and its successful democratic record. India now has partnered with
many countries. Accordingly, despite the issues related to it’s domestic
political and administrative concerns, labor concerns, populations and other
domestic issues, the economic growth has become a possible and unchallenged
advantage for it’s drive.
Meanwhile, Asia is growing closer together and building a
unified bloc - Japan and India have agreed to back each other for a permanent
seat on the UN Security Council.
Russia
as another emerging power, finally joined the World Trade Organization in
December 2011 for a stronger economic path. With this Russia now has the potential to be
richer and more powerful in coming
years. The Russian emergence as a main player on the global stage, has now
become important partner for Asian and Middle East countries as well as a force
opposing the US dominance both military and economically. Two examples that we
can bright out is the Russian support to Syria against the UN Security Council
resolution, which was backed by the US. Another recent example is the support
of Russia and China for Sri Lanka on the Geneva Resolution brought up by the
United States on war crimes. Need for a multi-polarity is not a new debate for
Russia. In 1990s a group of policy makers during the later Prime Minister
Evgeny Primakov, developed a strategy with an idea of Russia leading a
“multipolar alliance” to combat what was believed as the US led “unipolar”
world.
Brazil
on
the other hand is now exercising greater regional leadership and growing its
role as an energy producer as yet another
major player in world affairs. President, Lula da Silva, has a strong
socialist orientation and economically, Brazil has established a solid
foundation for steady growth based on political stability.
Today, with a
number of major powers, including China, India, the EU, Brazil and Russia,
accounting for an increasing share of the world’s GDP, Russians are quick to
note that their earlier world vision has come to be.
·
Other emerging powers and up-coming
powers
In addition to
the above mentioned new powers with their specific populous, military and
economic strengths, another group of powerhouses is erupting on the world Japan
maintains its status as an upper middle rank power. Japan’s export industries increased emphasizing
on high technology products, value-added production, and information
technologies.
Robert Gilpin in his third book “The Political Economy of International
Relations” (1987) after exploring changes in finance, trade and investment in the
postwar era, Gilpin concluded that the period of American hegemony in the
international system is coming to an end, and that Japan is emerging as a
potential hegemony in the international system. Even though this prediction is
yet to become a reality, Japan is in the third place of the CEBR economic
league table, just after the US and China. However, Japan’s economic and
military capacity is always a threat to the US hegemony.
Indonesia,
Turkey and Iran appear on the globe as growing
international roles.
Indonesia matters
as a growing player in the world with its economy. In the past decade,
Indonesia has transformed the country into a democracy. Having many natural
resources and being the fourth populous country in the world, Indonesia can
rise economically
Taking Iran in
to account it is a state rich in natural gas and other resources and high in
human
Capital. Iran is
bearing a high and stable stance in the world politics against so many
interferences and political issues both domestically and internationally. However,
it faced and still at their stance against any power interfere against them.
The US challenges against Iran and many international sanctions on its nuclear
plans, still didn’t make a big difference to the country to be weak or give up
their postures. Iran has on many occasions challenged the US power exercised
against them both military and economically.
Turkey
is playing a significant role in the Middle East with its recent economic
increase and the emerging middle class
Emerging
markets
The World Bank has identified 6
major emerging economies including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia. According to these
reports, these countries which have been identified as the emerging markets would
contribute for more than half of all global growth, and the international
monetary system will likely no longer be dominated by a single currency by
2025.
The chief
economist of the World Bank, Yifu Lin said “The
fast rise of emerging economies has driven a shift whereby the centers of
economic growth are distributed across developed and developing economies –
it’s a truly multipolar world,” [1]
The report, Global Development Horizons
2011—Multipolarity: The New Global Economy, projects that as a group,
emerging economies will grow on average by 4.7 percent a year between 2011 and
2025. Advanced economies, meanwhile, are
forecast to grow by 2.3 percent over the same period, yet will remain prominent
in the global economy, with the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the
United States all playing a core role in fueling global growth.
The shift in
economic and financial power toward the developing world has important
implications on corporate financing, investment, and the nature of cross-border
merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. As more deals originate in emerging
markets, South-South FDI is likely to rise, with most of it going into
greenfield investments, while South-North FDI is more likely to target acquisitions. As they
expand, more developing countries and their firms will be able to access
international bond and equity markets at better terms to finance overseas
investments.
Nuclear
Age
Raymond
Aron in his final part of “Peace and War” questions of how the international
system has changed in the post-1945 era. Here he is particularly focusing on
whether nuclear weapons have changed the role of force in foreign policy. Aron
showed a keen awareness of just how ambiguous the evidence was, as well as the
central dilemmas facing the strategy and ethics of statecraft in the nuclear
age.
Nuclear power is
increasingly being seen as the energy of the future. Recent statistics from
International Atomic Energy Agency indicate that nearly 60 states have
expressed their interests in or are actively planning to introduce nuclear
power. The possession of nuclear weapons by the emerging powers, make the
states to think over before using the same against any state’s actions. Also
the states labeled as “Axis of Evils” such as North Korea, Syria and Iran are
really challenging the sole superpower’s military and ideological hegemony in
the regions, which can also be identified as a path cleared for supporting the
multipolarization. With Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons, other countries
in the region would tend to develop new security measures with external powers
and possess their own nuclear weapons. Like this, the spread of nuclear technology
results the emergency of new nuclear power states to the international system,
which is yet another main reason to create the multipolar world. One of the major
development which we can state here, is that – India being the emerging power
both military and economically launched its maiden test flight of its longest
–range nuclear capable missile on the 19th of this month. India as bordered by two nuclear armed states
china and Pakistan is yet another evidence of emergence of Asian powers in the
contemporary world system.
If above trends
continue, we can see the key emerging powers who will play in the future
multi-polar world; US and the China is going to be the major players with
military and economic powers, while the regional powers like India, Brazil,
Russia, Japan and the large European states will also play their roles.
[1]
Emerging Market Growth poles are redefining global economic structure, Press
release No:2011/483/DEC, The World Bank
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